Real Estate in 2024: start or finish?

Real Estate in 2024: start or finish?

A small size apartment and promotions like Black Friday have become a significant factor in the real estate market.

According to the analysis, the дом.рф has high deposit rates of more than 18%, as well as an increase in household incomes, which will form the demand for housing in the future for 1.5 years.

- The structural transformation of the economy has led to the most significant increase in household incomes since 2012, - said the head of the Analytical Center дом.рф Mikhail Goldberg.

- So in the last 2 years, the number of Russians with incomes below the subsistence minimum has decreased by 20%, and the number of Russians with incomes from 60 thousand rubles (adjusted for inflation), who have access to mortgages at rates of 8-10%, has increased by 20%.

The current dynamics indicate that in a year and a half, income growth will result in demand for mortgages. In addition, citizens' funds received from income at high deposit rates exceeding 18% can also be used to buy housing even without mortgage loans.

However, this is in the long-term run. Meanwhile, by the end of 2024, a drop in mortgage lending is expected.

By the end of 2024, the number of mortgage loans may be reduced by about 30% to 1.4 million loans. In the market segment, the drop may reach 50% due to the prohibitive level of current rates.

People now decide to take out a mortgage at market rates if, for example, they have a need to change a small one-room apartment to a two-room one. In this case, citizens are ready to take out a mortgage loan at a high rate in the hope of being able to refinance it soon, the expert explained.

Housing at the start

In 2024, buyers are still ready to purchase housing at the start of sales, but the attitude towards startups has changed.

The cost of housing at the start is lower than at the ready stage, in addition, reliable developers try to offer favorable conditions. But still...

— In 2024, the situation with the willingness of buyers to purchase housing at the start of sales has become less unambiguous than a year ago, - said Alexey Bondarev, General Director of the real estate agency Pride Group. - The main factor influencing buyers' decisions is the increase in rates, which makes purchases less affordable. However, developers are adapting to new realities and offering various packages for future shareholders.

Previously, there was a real rush at the start, when apartments were bought out in just a few days. For example, at the start of sales, an apartment is bought from a developer for 9 million rubles, and a week later its value increases to 16 million.

It is expected that in six months, the demand may fall, and then there will not be much demand at the start.

The cost of housing at the start of sales and at the stage before the completion of the project is still different. Developers first offer apartments at the most affordable price to ease the debt burden of project financing. After a short period of time after the start, the price begins to rise, often after 2-3 days.

- The final increase by the time of completion of construction can reach 100%, although this is rare, the increase is mainly about 50%, - says Bondarev.

For example, the studio at the final stage of construction cost 12 million rubles. If the buyer had bought and waited two years, the cost of the lot would have been much cheaper - 6.5 million.

For the buyer, buying at the start of sales has more advantages, especially if we are talking about reliable developers. However, such apartments usually cost more than analogues from new, inexperienced developers.

- Despite various opinions, developers do not pull sales starts to higher stages of project readiness, - Bondarev believes. - Sales starts remain the main source of income for each developer, and the pace of sales is clearly spelled out in the project financing plans. There is no point in delaying the starts, except in cases when developers build or reconstruct houses at their own expense. Indeed, such projects can be launched closer to the final stage of construction in order to maximize gross profit, but there are few of them.

There are several groups among those who are ready to buy apartments at the start of sales. These are parents who purchase housing for their children, buyers with limited budgets, regional buyers and investors who competently use mortgage leverage. In general, despite the difficult economic conditions, interest in sales starts remains, and many buyers are ready to take advantage of the offers of developers.

Narrow happiness

However, do not start as one. According to Avito Real Estate, the demand for compact housing in new buildings increased by 7% in two months, in the secondary market — by 6%.

It seems that the buyer is ready to pay more and more attention to apartments of small square footage – here is a low price, that is, the possibility of a quick purchase, and then the opportunity to change housing, without regret parting with living rooms and studios. At the same time, apartments with an area of up to 28 sq. m. apartments on the secondary market are on average 1.4 million rubles cheaper than in new buildings.

Yaroslavl stands out especially against the general background (demand growth by 4 times), Irkutsk, where demand for small housing increased by 83%, Krasnoyarsk, where small cars added 43% to demand, Tula with its 42% and Krasnodar with 37% are also among the top five. Amazingly, according to Avito, the demand for compact housing in Moscow has decreased by 7%.

- Against the background of news about the introduction of restrictions on the construction of compact apartments in Moscow, in general, demand and supply for new small-sized housing have increased throughout the country, - explains Dmitry Alekseev, Managing Director of Avito primary real estate. - Russians are ready to vote for the compact format in rubles. Due to the low cost, this is sometimes the only available option for many to improve their living conditions: move out from your parents or move to a more promising city.

Realizing the relevance of the format, as well as the likelihood of a ban on the construction of small apartments in other regions of the Russian Federation, following the example of Moscow, developers in the regions began to actively expand the supply of such housing, while it is possible.

A long-awaited decline?

— Prices for new buildings began to rise several years ago, which was due to both an increase in the cost of construction and an increase in demand for housing, - said Alla Shinkevich, CEO of the Nevsky Prostor real estate agency. - In recent years, we have observed a steady increase in prices by about 15% annually. This is due to an increase in the cost of building materials and services. Nevertheless, like any market, the new building market is not without its own peculiarities and adjustments.

The increase in prices for new buildings was accompanied by an increase in construction volumes. Residential complexes grew like mushrooms after the rain, especially in large cities. However, the scale of construction was not always proportional to demand, which led to a temporary oversupply. However, this did not cause a serious price reduction. This trend continued until the first half of 2024.

- In recent months, we have begun to notice a slight decrease in prices for new buildings, - says Alla Shinkevich. - This is not a sharp drop, but rather a small correction caused by a decrease in purchasing power and the cancellation of state support. Now the primary market has declined by 5%, which is the maximum possible decline in the current conditions. The secondary market has also undergone minor changes, but there is no significant growth, as prices have reached their limits.

Now, there are no prerequisites for a sharp decline in prices for new buildings. According to some, it is not necessary to talk about a 40% drop in prices during the year. Yes, there may be a slight price reduction, but not more than 5%. Building materials continue to rise in price, services are also becoming more expensive, which prevents prices for new buildings from falling significantly. At best, we can expect stagnation or a slight decline.

Desire for an apartment…

Russians are looking for a way out in promotions and discounts. So, during Black Friday, customers booked real estate worth 7.8 billion rubles for purchase. At the same time, the total amount of discounts reached 6.6 billion rubles, which is 1.5 billion more than in 2023. The number of lots also exceeded last year's figure by more than twice - 3,837 against 1,763. However, it must be said that a total of 40 objects and 3,837 lots with a total value of 63.9 billion rubles participated in Black Friday. But even what was sold out is impressive.

Traditionally, the highest demand within the framework of the campaign was for apartments and suites. The average receipt in Moscow amounted to 10.6 million rubles, and the maximum discount for apartments reached 29%, for apartments – 32%.

At the same time, the most affordable object turned out to be in Odintsovo for 4.3 million rubles, the most expensive was a penthouse in Sochi for almost 1 billion rubles. Moreover, both were booked immediately, on the first night of the promotion.

- The campaign started in the conditions of cancellation of preferential mortgages and in a situation of expectation of the next increase in the key rate, - says the head and managing partner of the REPA Association, the organizer of "Black Friday" Yulia Solodovnikova. - This factor spurred interest in the sale as an opportunity to purchase an apartment at a lower cost or take a more spacious option, especially for those who still had the approval of a preferential mortgage.

…We briefly assessed the development of residential real estate in the first half of 2024, looked at the forecasts. Further formats and opportunities will depend on the key rate and the desire of customers to buy apartments at high prices.

Source: rcmm.ru

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